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NSW Jobs Insights

NSW Jobs Insights

Steps to find your data

  1. Select your options for 1. Future Jobs & Drivers 2. Region 3. Sector

    Options must be selected for all buttons to show your data.

  2. Scroll in or out on the map to find your location, then hover over or click your cursor on a region/sector or project for more details.

  3. Click on Clear to select new options for 1, 2 and 3.



 

Region 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25 2025‑26 5 years to 2025‑26
Region Rank Industry 2021 2041 Change Annual % Planning Region Contribution to % Change to Planning Region
Region Area km2 2021 2041 Change Annual %

Projections

The data is current as at December 2021

Job density calculations for LGAs and LGA-derived regions are based on the LGA-based areas in the table. See explanation below for more detail.

Definitions

Sector

Annual %

Compound average annual % change over the 20 years to 2041

Planning Region

Planning Regions are defined by the NSW Government using groups of Councils to develop strategic land use plans called Regional Plans. For more information, please click https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area/Regional-Plans

Contribution to % Change to Planning Region

The selected region’s contribution to the employment change for an industry-sector in the Planning Region in percentage terms. For example, the contribution will equal 10% if growth in Planning Region employment for an industry-sector in the 20 years to 2036 is equal to 100 and growth in the selected area’s employment for an industry-sector is 10 over the corresponding period (10/100=10%).


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2019 2020 2021
Region Units Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total
Find out more

Totals



Employment

Land Take-up (hectares)

Developed Area by Zoning (hectares)

Undeveloped Land by Zoning (hectares)

Undeveloped employment land stocks (hectares)

Serviced

Undeveloped employment land stocks (hectares)

Unserviced

Find out more

Jobs Supply Forecasts

The Sydney Jobs Supply Forecast estimates future jobs enabled by built infrastructure for Greater Sydney at place of work for the next 5 years. The forecasts are thus a subset of all jobs across Sydney. Forecasts have been rounded to the nearest 5 job positions.

The 2022 release of Sydney Jobs Supply Forecast was the first time the NSW Government produced jobs supply forecasts. The forecasts are regularly updated, once every year.

Job and employment concepts

Employment is a count of people who are employed. The ABS uses the international definition of an employed person if they work one hour or more in a week. Employed people can have multiple jobs. The number of full-time employed people does not equate to the number of full-time jobs because both full-time and part-time jobs exist. Full-time equivalents (FTEs) are therefore used to provide a common basis of comparison when multiple job holders exist, and accounts for employment and jobs include both full-time and part-time possibilities.

Two job types are forecast: operational jobs and construction jobs.

Operational jobs indicate the number of FTE job positions that are expected to be supplied by a newly completed buildings designed for non-residential purposes such as offices, warehouses and shopping centres. The Sydney Jobs Supply Forecast model does not measure jobs that are removed by the new projects, or elsewhere, and therefore do not measure net increases in job numbers. Operational jobs indicate potential new jobs represented by gross inflows arising across a region during a financial year.

Construction jobs supply show the total number of FTE job positions that are expected to be enabled by the pipeline of construction projects across four sectors as at the end of a financial year: residential, mixed residential, non-residential construction projects and engineering construction. During a financial year, construction jobs are added or removed as development projects are commenced or completed. The number of construction jobs remaining at the end of a financial year equals:

  • number of active construction jobs at the beginning of the financial year
  • plus
  • number of construction jobs enabled by projects commenced during the year
  • less
  • number of construction jobs ceased by projects completed during the year.

Construction jobs supply represents the total number of construction jobs in FTE terms at a point in time. The difference between construction jobs supply in two financial years gives the net change in construction jobs supply for a region during a financial year. Construction job supply is therefore similar, but not the same, as construction employment. Jobs supply is measured in FTE job positions terms while employment measures the number of full-time and part time employed persons.

How were the forecasts developed?

The Sydney Jobs Supply Forecast modelling approach is to count current job-enabling development projects at location across Greater Sydney, assess when projects are likely to be completed and determine how many jobs are expected to materialise at completion based on the size of projects.. The forecasts are developed using a financial-year model based around the following six steps.

  1. Project pipeline data collection
  2. Project location assessment
  3. Construction status assessment
  4. Completion dates assessment
  5. Project size assessment
  6. FTE jobs per unit benchmarks application

Data used to develop the development pipeline are sourced from:

  1. Cordell Connect
  2. DPE Sydney Housing Supply Forecast
  3. DPE Major Projects Register
  4. TfNSW Transport Infrastructure pipeline portal.

Data used to determine FTE jobs per square metre Gross Floor Area (GFA) or $mil Construction Investment Value (CV) are sourced from individual development applications, Landcom, NSW Treasury’s employment calculator and DPE analysis.

Caveats

Measurement caveats

Forecasts have been rounded to the nearest 5 job positions. Due to rounding, these totals may not match other totals in the forecast set. For construction jobs, multi-LGA projects not allocated include transport infrastructure projects where information about regional impacts could be assessed using publicly available information. Operational jobs also cannot be added to Construction jobs to give Total jobs.

Scope of construction jobs supply

Construction jobs supply accounts for less than 30% of construction employment in Greater Sydney. The narrower scope of construction jobs supply compared with construction employment is due to the exclusion of fitouts from the pipeline of development projects selected to forecast both housing and jobs supply.

Minimum cut-off values for Construction Investment Value of $10 million and $5 million are applied to mixed residential and non-residential projects respectively. An exception is made for childcares centres under the $5 million limit because such centres generally display high job densities.

Inadequate information on regional impacts of large transport infrastructure projects

Construction jobs associated with large transport infrastructure projects that have inadequate information to easily distinguish regional impacts are placed in a category called ‘Multi-LGA projects not allocated’. This grouping may be found by selecting LGA in the Region menu. These infrastructure jobs cannot be identified using the Statistical Area, Precinct or Centres pathways.

Scope of operational jobs supply

Operational jobs supply accounts for almost 100% of employment growth across Greater Sydney for all industries excluding construction employment. Operational jobs supply does not include jobs at home and is based on a more restricted coverage of employment-related activities, excluding less jobs intensive activities such as heavy industry, storage tanks, landscaping, pavilions, horticultural buildings, standalone service stations and multi-storey car parks.

Job density benchmark uncertainties

The FTE job density benchmarks are indicative and intend to reflect the job density of a typical development in a land use category across the Greater Sydney region. A wide range of factors affect job densities at location, even within land use categories, and over time. Some of the more obvious factors include Covid-19, stage of economic cycle, technologies used and working practices of businesses

Employment - Forecasts

Employment forecasts are the 2022 release of Victoria University Employment Forecasts (VUEF22). Forecast horizon is from 2019-20 to 2027-28 and covers 214 industries and 358 occupations. Data are only available for Statistical Area 4 regions.

The VUEF is a family of models centred on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The VUEF captures dynamic adjustment to a shock and the flow onto employment, industry, occupations, and educational attainment.

VUEF modelling draws on a comprehensive range of inputs, including macroeconomic and demographic data, labour market statistics, education statistics, commonwealth and state economic and demographic forecasts, and expert industry forecasts.

Industry - Forecasts

Sectors define the broad economic functions of a region. NSW Jobs Insights groups the industries into 4 sectors: knowledge-intensive, industrial: health and education, and population-serving.

Industries are defined using the ABS system for classifying industries called the Australia New Zealand Standards Industry Classification (ANZSIC) at the 1-digit or industry division level. The 1-digit classification is the largest grouping, with more detail about the industry for classifications with more digits.

Segments are defined using the ANZSIC system at the 3-digit or industry group level.

Occupations - Forecasts

Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) Level 1 is defined at the 1-digit ANZSCO or major group level. The 1-digit classification is the largest grouping, with more detail about the occupation for classifications with more digits.

ANZSCO Level 2 is defined at the 2-digit ANZSCO or sub-major group level.

ANZSCO Level 3 is defined at the 3-digit ANZSCO or minor group level.

Employment - Projections

The NSW Common Planning Assumptions (CPA) employment projections provide information about where, when and how many persons will be employed in different industries across the state.

The CPA employment projections are used across Government to inform infrastructure planning and service delivery to support economic development. The projections are regularly updated, every 2 to 3 years.

The 2022 release of CPA employment projections was the second time the NSW Government produced employment projections from large regions down to the small area level called travel zones for the whole of NSW.

The 2022 release is also the latest available set of common planning assumptions for employment and is used to populate the NSW Jobs Insights tool. The next update of the NSW CPA employment projections is expected in 2024.

How are the projections developed?

The employment projections are developed using two models to produce an integrated set of workforce and employment projections. The two models are:

  1. The Victoria University whole-of-economy model and
  2. The Travel Zone industry employment projection models.

The Victoria University whole-of-economy model is used to produce the regional employment projections consistent with NSW Common Planning Assumptions for regional population projections. The whole-of-economy model was developed by the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University.

  • The whole-of-economy model produces industry employment projections for Metropolitan Sydney and 14 regions (at the ABS Statistical Area 4 level) across regional NSW.
  • The 19-industry breakdown is based on the ABS 1-digit ANZSIC system.
  • Modelling assumptions are formulated in consultation with The Treasury, Department of Planning and Environment, Transport for NSW and other agencies via the Economy and Employment Technical Sub-Group of the NSW Common Planning Assumptions Group.

The Travel Zone industry employment projection models used to produce travel zone employment projections. Travel zones are small areas; the size of city blocks in CBD areas to the size of large regions in remote areas.

The Travel Zone industry employment projection models were developed by Advanced Analytics and Insights within Transport for NSW in collaboration with SGS Planning and Economics and Department of Planning and Environment.

The Travel Zone Projections for employment are developed to be consistent with the regional employment projections, employment land supply and future employment developments.

Travel Zone Projections and the ABS statistical geography system

The Travel Zone spatial system is consistent with the ABS statistical geography system. The travel zone employment projections are provided in the mapping tool for larger areas in the ABS statistical geography system. These areas are called Statistical Area 2 (SA2), Statistical Area 3 (SA3) and Statistical Area 4 (SA4).

Travel Zone Projections and other boundary systems

The Travel Zone Projections are converted into Local Government Area (LGA) Projections using the correspondence method. The correspondence method selects travel zones that best fit a Local Government Area by minimising differences between the two geography systems. These LGA projections are provided at larger areas called Cities, Planning Regions, Districts and Functional Economic Regions. These regions are consistent with LGA boundaries.

The Travel Zone Projections are also applied to key precincts and centres across NSW, also using the correspondence method.

Caveats

When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data.

The NSW Whole-of-Government employment projections seek to represent the most likely future trends for NSW, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes.

Employment - Density

Employment density is the number of persons employed in a region divided by the region’s area. Employment density is a measure of intensity of land use.

Area is measured in square kilometres in the mapping tool. There are 100 hectares or 1 million square metres in 1 square kilometre.

Caveats

Job density calculations for LGAs and LGA-derived regions are based on actual LGA-based areas not on the aggregations of the travel zone areas that employment is based on. Job densities will differ between the two methods but the differences are usually small. Contact [email protected] for more information.

The NSW Whole-of-Government employment projections of employment density seek to represent the most likely future trends for NSW, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes.

When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data.

What is Industrial Land Supply (ELDM)?

Industrial land supply includes lands zoned for selected employment activities and form industrial precincts and business parks. The industrial land precincts are the same areas defined by Department of Planning and Environment’s Employment Lands Development Monitor (ELDM). These employment lands are vital to the functioning of our urban areas, providing space for:

  • Essential services such as waste and water management, repair trades and construction services;
  • Warehousing, logistics and distribution centres; and
  • Areas for businesses that design, manufacture and produce goods and services.

The ELDM data is produced once a year and updated in NSW Jobs Insights on an annual basis. The ELDM data in NSW Jobs Insights is the 2021 release. Read more about the ELDM.

Developed land supply

Industrial lands are determined to be ‘developed’ or occupied when development (construction/works) has commenced on a site and the site is therefore no longer available for development.

Take-up is measured as the quantity in hectares of zoned Employment Lands that has changed from ‘undeveloped’ (vacant) to ‘developed’ (occupied) over a 12-month period (for example, between January 2020 and January 2021) based on Sydney Water data and confirmed by aerial photography and related information.

Undeveloped land supply

Undeveloped land supply is currently zoned industrial land that were not occupied by an employment land use at the time of data collection. There are essentially two classes of undeveloped industrial lands.

  1. Undeveloped and Serviced industrial lands are currently zoned and serviced but not occupied by an employment land use at the time of data collection. The land may therefore be vacant or occupied by another use.
  2. Undeveloped and Not Serviced industrial lands are currently zoned but sewerage or potable water service is not yet available for connection, based on Sydney Water data.

Major Development Projects

Major development projects are significant developments that may result in new jobs in the future, either as construction jobs or as operational jobs once projects are completed.

These major projects are sourced from the Department of Planning and Environment’s Major Projects Database. This database lists all proposals assessed by the Department to ensure that the need for new jobs is balanced with the needs of the community and environment. The database also details projects such as mines, industrial sites, major developments, and infrastructure that the Department has assessed to ensure planning regulations are met.

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS

The NSW Jobs Insights tool is intended for use with:

  • A desktop or laptop computer with internet access
  • Any modern browser (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge, Opera etc)

It has been tested on tablet and the tool works in landscape mode. On mobile phones the tool is difficult to navigate, and some functionality is lost.

ACCESSIBILITY

NSW Department of Planning and Environment wants to make its information and services available to as many people as possible, including those using assistive technology.

The highly visual nature of the Projections Explorer makes it unsuitable to conforming with WCAG 2.0 Level AA. The Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) is the mechanism used by standard web pages to achieve accessibility.

DATA SOURCES

NSW Jobs Insights extracts data the following three sources:

Data source Provided by Source
Travel zone projections Transport for NSW https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/

The minor differences in employment numbers for aggregations of travel zones in NSW Jobs Insights compared with those from the source are due to rounding

Employment lands supply DPE https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Employment-Lands-Development-Monitor
Major development projects DPE https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects

Please go to the Urban Development Program Dashboard for spatial data on population and housing.

CONTACT

If you have any issues, please share your feedback and we’ll get back to you when we can.

If you have any accessibility-related issues, email us at [email protected] and we’ll help you get the information you need.

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